After spending the last two nights huddled in my apartment because of a typhoon (really, there was an actual typhoon) I went down to the river because it was a gorgeous night. While I was there for some reason I started thinking about basketball. I started thinking about the Golden Rule that you need an elite low-post scorer to win it all in the NBA. But I realized that the ’08 Celtics didn’t really have one, Garnett likes to play on the elbow. Same for the Pistons in ’04, ‘Sheed had by then become more reliant on his outside shot, and wasn’t the teams focal point on offense anyways. Sure, Shaq and Duncan have won 4 titles each, but of the last 18 champions, 8 of them did not have what many would consider an “elite” post scorer. Over 44% of teams that won the title broke the Golden Rule. However, every single team in those 13 years had one thing in common, and this common thread is for some reason hardly ever discussed.
Each team since Detroit’s Bad Boy Pistons have had one key similarity: a small forward who could hit the 3 and play suffocating defense. Now if they played defense by having elite skill like Pippen or Prince, or if they just relied on thoroughly pissing off their opponent (Bruce Bowen, Rick Fox, and Mr. Hip Check, James Posey), these players were effective. All of these players were in the game for their defense, but they also all nailed the three point shot when it mattered. In the case of Pippen, the all time NBA steals record holder for a forward, he is arguably the best defender ever at his position. He was not a great three point shooter, but in the playoffs he was a reliable three point threat, even sharing the record for the most 3’s made in a finals game with 7. Pippen’s game was probably good enough for the Bulls to win without him finding his three point shot, but for the rest of this defensive minded group hitting the 3 was the essential ingredient that would enable their teams to hold the championship trophy. We will call them the DM3P’s.
So which teams this season look like they have that special ingredient that leads to champagne popping and banner rising? Let’s take a look at the contenders.
Just Quit Now: Denver Nuggets, Phoenix Suns, Portland TrailBlazers.These teams don’t have anyone who even remotely resembles a defensive-minded, three-point shooting small forward. Carmelo, Hill, and Outlaw are all mid-range jump shooters who don’t play defense. None of these teams will go anywhere in the playoffs.
One Dimensional Wonders: Utah Jazz, Cleveland LeBrons, Toronto Raptors, Orlando Magic.Utah has two great wing defenders in AK-47 and Ronnie Brewer. Neither one can shoot…at all.
Cleveland, Toronto, and Orlando all have small forwards who are great three point shooters. All of them are white. None of them can guard anyone. Coincidence? You decide.
The Everything Needs to Break (or not break) Right Team: Houston Rockets.Shane Battier is the poster boy for a tough defender who can hit the 3. If he were on the Lakers last season Phil Jackson would now be sporting a ring on every one of his ten fingers. Everyone knows the problem with the Rockets. McGrady and Yao have each shown that they cannot stay healthy for a full season, and Ron Artest….well you don’t need me to tell you that he has more career suspension games than playoff games.
In the Posey Zone: Boston Celtics and New Orleans Hornets.With the signing of James Posey, the Hornets bought themselves a proven DM3Per, who has just so happened to have won 2 of the last three titles. If Paul, West, and Chandler can stay healthy, the Hornets are a real threat to win it all this year.
By letting Posey walk, Boston had dumped an even greater load on the shoulders of the already weary Paul Pierce. Ray Allen, Sam Cassell, and even Kevin Garnett are all a year older, and something tells me that Darius Miles will not be the answer. There is a reason the DM3P’s have all been role players, and I don’t think Pierce will be able to handle all the responsibilities the Celtics are putting on him.
Too Little Too Late: Dallas Mavericks.Josh Howard is a potential DM3Per, but nobody knows what this team is built to do. Run and gun, or grind it out and feed it to Dirk while everyone cheats off Kidd. Avery was a good coach, but when the refs decided they wanted Dwayne Wade to win the 2004 finals, they lost their window. Getting run by the Warriors might have been the death blow. Maybe Carlisle can turn things around, make their offense a bit more creative. However, barring a miracle the Mavericks’ time has most likely passed.
Tried and True: San Antonio Spurs, Detroit Pistons.Bowen and Prince are ring-owning members of the DM3P club. The question here is age and health. Bowen is old. He definitely has lost a step, also the Lakers realized that he can only hit the three from the corner and adjusted to not allow him to get wide open looks from there. Manu’s injury also makes one assume that this is not San Antonio’s year. Prince is just now entering his prime, but the rest of the Pistons are slowly fading from the players they were four years ago. If young blood like Maxiell and Stuckey can continue to improve however, they will be scary in the playoffs.
The Potential Dynasty: Los Angeles Lakers.Kobe. Pau. Bynum. There aren’t a better big three in the league to build around for this year and the future. However, as of now they do not have a DM3P small forward. They have all the parts, but not one complete player. They will have to either develop one of their many small forward options, or have Phil pull some Zen tricks with the matchups if there is to be another Laker banner raised in ’09. Odom will likely be the starting 3 to begin the year, but he is better as a quick 4 who can penetrate and dish, while using his huge wingspan to rebound close to the basket. Vlad can shoot. He can shoot very well. Vlad also cannot play defense. Walton showed signs of hitting the 3 last season, but also cannot play defense and is very inconsistent. Short of making a trade for Battier when Artest goes crazy and T-Mac and Yao get injured ordering a Frosty at Wendy’s, the Lakers will have to develop. This means either Trevor Ariza or Sasha “The Machine” Vujacic will have to expand their games.
Ariza is an incredibly athletic defender. He is coming off an injury, but has all the tools to be one of the best defensive small forwards in the game today. If he can simply learn to hit the corner 3, a la Bowen, he will have gained DM3P status. Still, it’s a big if, as he holds a lofty .209 career three point percentage. Yikes.
Sasha Vujacic is a Shooting Machine. He shot a ridiculous 44% from deep last year. He already has the makings of a modern day Rick Fox with his ability to annoy every living soul in the building. The long hair is an added bonus. The problem with Sasha is that he likes to shoot too much. Someone who shoots 44% from long range should be much higher than 46% from 2 point range. He needs to become more selective with his shots and concentrate more on his defense to become a true DM3per. Although it is obvious that The Machine will never put defense first, I believe he can be enough of a pest on that end for his 3 point accuracy to carry him into that most respected group of small forwards: NBA champions.
